How Radical Changes to the H-1B Lottery Could Affect International Students

Last week, the White House cleared the way for the biggest change in more than a decade to the H-1B lottery and allocation of H-1B visas—temporary visas allowing U.S. employers to hire foreign workers, including international students. To better understand the proposed change and its potential effects on international students, we spoke with Marcelo Barros, an international student career expert and founder of The International Advantage. Below is an edited version of our conversation.

VAULT: Can you explain the proposed changes to the H-1B lottery? And how significant are they?

BARROS: The game is about to change in a very radical way. The H-1B lottery, which gives out 85,000 H-1Bs each year, may no longer be a pure random selection process. For years, the system gave everyone—from entry-level analysts making $60,000 a year to senior AI engineers making $1 million a year—the same odds of being picked. Now, USCIS [U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services] is moving toward a wage-based selection process where applicants offered higher salaries by employers are placed in stronger positions for selection. In other words, the more an employer is willing to pay, the greater the chance that the H-1B application may get chosen.

How does this wage-based approach affect international students starting their careers?

This change is a direct hit to recent graduates because most students come out of school with limited work experience and therefore tend to command entry-level salaries. In the old lottery, those wages didn’t matter—you had the same chance of being picked as someone with a higher wage. But under the new system, if your employer files at a lower wage level, your petition may end up with a much smaller probability of success compared to someone with a higher-paying job.

How are international students reacting to these new changes?

Time will tell. Perhaps we’ll see a push toward targeting industries that pay more. Similarly, perhaps international students will target jobs in cities and locations that pay more, like New York and Silcom Valley. Perhaps international students will target employers with structured development programs where salaries can be negotiated to more competitive levels before the H-1B is filed.

But one thing is clear: If the plan is to stay and work in the U.S. under the H-1B program, students will need to align their career choices with salary strength in a way they’ve never had to before—they’ll need to figure out how to qualify for roles that pay above entry-level wages to give them the best shot at their H-1B. Unfortunately, this may be incredibly difficult for some candidates early in their careers, particularly those targeting roles that may not pay so well.

What does this mean for employers who traditionally hired international students?

Time will tell how employers will react in terms of offering more competitive wages to back up an H-1B case, but this is where things could get very interesting. Many employers that have historically relied on a steady stream of international hires to fill their entry-level roles will now be asking themselves: “What do I do now? Who do I hire?” That is, the new wage-based H-1B lottery may cause employers to wonder whether it’s worth sponsoring H-1B petitions for entry-level candidates if the odds of lottery success are lower for professionals commanding entry-level wages.

Under the new proposed system, it’s entirely possible that, going forward, some employers will decide to only file petitions for more senior positions, or for roles that can justify higher pay. In fact, just this past week, I’ve talked with over 30 employers about the new H-1B system that may be implemented and most of them told me that any H-1B hire they get—entry level or senior—would be a blessing.

What advice do you have for international students who are worried about the new system?

First, don’t let fear of the upcoming wage-based lottery stop you from pursuing your goals—but be prepared to be more strategic than ever before regarding your honest chances to secure employment in the U.S. If you can demonstrate unique value, specialized skills, or the ability to contribute at a higher level than a typical new grad, then you have a shot at your H-1B under the new system. International students should be asking themselves: “How can I elevate my profile so it’s not an ‘entry-level’ in order to commend a higher salary and therefore and give me a fair chance of getting an H-1B?”

Second, keep in mind that thousands of international students will still succeed. There will be lottery winners, and there will be lottery losers, which has always been the case. While it does appear that the system will shift in favor of higher wages, students aren’t powerless. Again, with the right positioning, mindset, and strategy, many international students will still break through.

Third, it seems that it will be key to focus on industries and employers that can pay competitively, and one must need to prepare like crazy to try to secure jobs that pay well. Finally, continue to work with your university resources and other individuals who can quickly help you get fit to get hired. The reality is that these new rules may make things harder for many international students to stay and work in the U.S. after graduation, but they won’t make their dreams impossible.

And, of course, if you’re a potential H-1B applicant who may command a higher salary and who has been frustrated with the current H-1B visa lottery system, then I suspect the new system is cause for much celebration.

Marcelo Barros is the author of The International Advantage: Get Noticed. Get Hired!, which gives international students advice on how to find the job they want in the U.S. Barros partners with U.S. universities to prepare international students to stay and work in the U.S. after graduation. International students interested in booking job search consultation with Barros should contact him via LinkedIn. Next stops for The International Advantage include Kansas State University (September 16, 2025), University of Montana (September 18, 2025), and Stevens Institute of Technology (September 26, 2025).