The child day-care industry generated $61.7 billion in 2023, according to Grand View Research. The industry has been recovering from the slowdown during the pandemic in 2020 and 2021, and growth is expected to continue as more parents return to work on site in offices and other locations. Nearly 5.9 percent compound annual growth is expected in the U.S. child care industry from 2024 to 2030. Other factors that will contribute to the child care industry growth include new developments in learning technologies and an increase in government funding, particularly for single mothers and working mothers.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics notes growing recognition that early childhood education is important for children's cognitive and emotional development and confers lifelong benefits. However, child-care workers are expected to have a 1 percent decline in employment growth through 2033. The high cost of daycare, coupled with more stay-at-home parents than years ago, continue to affect the industry. Opportunities will result from the need to replace workers who leave their positions for other work or who retire. Opportunities for care providers and teachers in this industry will be for those with more education. The larger centers in this industry will provide opportunities for several other occupations with good potential for growth, including general and operations managers, cooks and food preparation workers, and bus drivers.
Head Start has been renewed continually since its inception, partly because it has a high level of parental involvement and therefore a built-in constituency. However, unlike Social Security or Medicare, Head Start has not become a permanent entitlement, and this may reflect public ambivalence about the value of the program. Head Start's reputation was not enhanced by a 2012 study sponsored by the Department of Health and Human Services that tracked Head Start children through third grade and found few lasting benefits in terms of cognitive skills, social-emotional well-being, health, or parenting practices. The program responded by requiring local providers to compete for financing every five years and by imposing more consistent standards for performance. In 2019, the Brookings Institute reported that based on new research on the Head Start Impact Study, Head Start does improve cognitive skills. That same year Congress authorized an investment of more than $10 million on Head Start.
The outlook for universal preschool is unclear. The movement for universal preschool struggles not only with fiscal austerity but also with the traditional belief that children should be raised at home. Traditionalists and religious institutions have forged an alliance, partly on ideological grounds, but also because many churches house child-care facilities, and state funding of these programs would not permit the inclusion of religious instruction or worship. However, some states fund half-day programs and permit religious content at the same facility as long as it is limited to the other half of the day.
Other critics of universal preschool cite the research questioning the effectiveness of Head Start, but supporters of the initiative argue that Head Start's teachers are low-paid compared to public school teachers and that the program's standards have been inconsistent. The model intended for universal preschool is not Head Start but rather the high-quality preschool programs with better-paid staff.
In January 2024, a bill was introduced to Congress "to establish a grant program to assist States to establish or expand universal prekindergarten in public schools and charter schools." The bill, H.R. 7114, was to be cited as the "Universal Prekindergarten and Early Childhood Education Act of 2024." As of September 2024, it was yet to be passed.
The charter school movement is beginning to create some opportunities for employment in preschool education, so far mostly in big cities. The usual model is that an existing charter school at the elementary level adds a preschool program, although this practice is complicated by most states' different licensing requirements for schools and day-care centers. Some observers of these programs have criticized them for their emphasis on academic rigor, which is commendable in K-12 charter schools but may not be appropriate for the younger age group.
According to a 2023 report on national trends in child care, findings revealed only a small increase in the number of child care centers and a slight decrease in the number of family child care (FCC) homes from 2022 to 2023. The report stated that while the number of child care centers had grown to reach levels equal to those before the pandemic, the drop in FCC homes is tracking with a downward trend that has continued in recent years and is expected to continue in the coming years.
Government funding for child care varies depending on the administration and the state of the economy. The U.S. Administration's budget for fiscal year 2025 includes $8.5 billion for the Child Care and Development Block Grant, to help states expand child care assistance to serve more than 2 million low-income children. The budget also proposes a new program to help lower child care costs for families with incomes up to $200,000 per year. The program would provide affordable, high-quality child care from birth until kindergarten, with most families paying $10 or less per day, and the lowest income families having free child care.