For the wholesale business in its entirety, the U.S. Department of Labor (DOL) projects that employment will increase by 2.8 percent annually from 2023 through 2033.
Wholesale trade is sensitive to fluctuations in the economy. When consumers and businesses cut back on their spending, the retailers and producers who buy from wholesalers follow suit a year or so later, when their current orders have been filled. The result is that when a recession hits, although wholesalers reduce hiring at once, it is not until about a year later, when their sales take a plunge, that they lay off workers. This pattern held during the recession that occurred when the housing bubble burst in late 2007. Employment also dropped significantly during the early months of the COVID pandemic in early 2020, but gradually recovered in the latter half of the year.
The outlook also varies for occupations within the wholesale industry. For sales representatives, wholesale and manufacturing, the DOL projects 3 percent growth from 2023 through 2033 for those selling technical and scientific goods and 1 percent for all others. The average growth rate for all occupations is 4 percent. "A rising total volume of sales, as well as a wider range of products and technologies, will create demand for sales representatives.," according to the DOL. Many wholesale and manufacturing sales occupations involve face-to-face contact and a personal touch that cannot be delivered by an overseas worker, although sales are increasingly being conducted online. "These online sales are mostly expected to complement, rather than replace, face-to-face selling." according to the DOL. "Advances in artificial intelligence and integration with automation technologies, such as chat bots, may limit employment growth for sales representatives." The best opportunities are expected to be at deal-making agencies that do not handle merchandise.
For those workers engaged in transportation and in moving materials in the wholesale industry, there will be average growth through 2033. Employment opportunities for most occupations in this sector are expected to grow between 4 and 4.5 percent, including heavy and tractor-trailer truck drivers, light truck or delivery service drivers, and workers who move freight and stock by hand.
Growth projections for some administrative support occupations in the wholesale industry are not as optimistic because of automation (including the use of artificial intelligence). Employment for order clerks will decline by 16.4 percent through 2033.
The collection and analysis of data in order to make business decisions, create long-term operational strategies, and to meet other goals has become increasingly important in the wholesale industry—and the employment outlook for workers who analyze and protect data is strong. Job opportunities for data scientists in the wholesale industry are expected to grow much faster than the average (+31.7 percent) through 2033. Employment for information security analysts is expected to increase by 25.5 percent though 2025.
The DOL reports that the mean annual wage of workers in the industry was $71,410. This is higher than the national average ($63,098) for all private sector workers. Mean annual earnings for selected careers were as follows in 2023:
- information security analysts: $129,720
- data scientists: $115,740
- wholesale and manufacturing sales representatives, technical and scientific products: $111,720
- wholesale and manufacturing sales representatives, except technical and scientific products: $80,170
- truck drivers, heavy and tractor-trailer: $55,560
- information and record clerks: $47,210
- laborers and freight, stock, and material movers, hand: $40,540