The U.S. Department of Labor anticipates that employment for USPS mail carriers will decline by 3 percent from 2023 through 2033. The Postal Service expects mail volume to decrease during the next decade, primarily because of the increased competition from other delivery services, including automated and electronic bill pay and e-mail. Along with a decrease in mail volume will be an increase in the number of addresses to which mail must be delivered. However, automation advances in mail sorting will reduce the amount of time carriers spend sorting and give them more time to handle longer routes. Another trend that is expected to increase productivity and slow employment growth is the wider use of more centralized mail delivery, such as cluster boxes, to cut down on the number of door-to-door deliveries.
Applicants for mail carrier positions are expected to far outnumber vacant positions for the foreseeable future. Tens of thousands of postal workers are hired each year to fill positions vacated due to retirements, transfers, deaths, and employees who choose to leave the postal service, according to the USPS. A large portion of those openings are for mail carriers. However, competition for openings is expected to remain very strong.