Agriculture

Industry consolidation and the decline in the number of smaller farms is expected to continue through the late-2020s, but the value of agricultural production has increased due to advances in technology and other factors. Between 2017 and 2022, the number of farms in the U.S. declined by 7 percent (or 141,733 farms), according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture's 2022 Census of Agriculture (which is conducted every five years). A total of 20.1 million acres (an area about the size of Maine) were removed from farming during this timeframe, but the value of agricultural production increased from $389 billion in 2017 to $533 billion in 2022. The loss of farmland varies by U.S. region, with the Southwest experiencing a much higher percentage loss of farmland than states that are located east of the Mississippi River.

Employment in the agricultural industry is expected to decline for many occupations from 2022 through 2032, according to the U.S. Department of Labor (DOL). Job opportunities for farmers, ranchers, and other agricultural managers will decline by 5 percent through 2032, and employment will also decline for farmworkers. "Despite steady demand for agricultural products, many small farms operate with slim profit margins and are vulnerable to poor market conditions," according to the DOL. "As in the past, operators of small farms will likely continue to exit the business over the decade." Employment for agricultural equipment operators is projected to increase by 9 percent through 2032, which is faster than the average for all careers. Another bright spot is the career of animal breeder. Employment in this career is expected to grow by 2 percent through 2032.

The DOL predicts that several trends should help farmers and other specialized workers in this industry. Some farmers are prospering by focusing on growing specialty crops, participating in farmer-owned and -operated cooperatives, or switching to all-organic farming practices in response to public fears about the effects of pesticides and fertilizers used in traditional agriculture. The output of organic, small farms is highly sought after in many urban markets, where farmers sell their products at weekly farmers markets or through community-supported agriculture initiatives. This kind of market should provide opportunity for growth in this industry in the coming years.

Fish farming and aquaculture will also become more important and more profitable in the coming years. In 2023, the global aquaculture market was valued at $42.6 billion, according to a market analysis conducted by GQ Research. Its value is expected to reach $69.76 billion by 2030. Growth in aquaculture is spurred by declining ocean catches due to overfishing technological, innovations, and the growing demand for seafood items, such as shrimp, salmon, and catfish. Pollution, such as that caused by the 2010 Deepwater Horizon oil spill or the 2011 Fukushima nuclear disaster, also affects ocean fishing.

Another important development in agriculture involves methods of processing grains to make new products and helping farmers to deal with crop surpluses. In many agriculture-based states, adding value to agricultural products is the largest creator of wealth and jobs. The pursuit of new uses for farm crops will provide many jobs for those involved in processing and will also provide farmers with new markets for their crops. For example, corn is used for ethanol, sweeteners, feed products, corn oil, and lactic acid. Studies are underway that will expand corn's uses to include adhesives, paper and packaging, nonprescription medical products, and even plastic.

Food safety is an important issue that will impact jobs for food scientists, agricultural scientists, and inspectors. Outbreaks of mad cow disease and foot-and-mouth disease in livestock in Europe have prompted heightened efforts to detect and prevent these problems in the United States. Despite China's efforts to curb African Swine Fever (ASF) by killing more than 1 million pigs, by 2019 it had spread to Vietnam, Mongolia, and Cambodia. Although this disease has not reached the United States, it has been detected in the Caribbean island of Hispaniola (which is home to two countries: Haiti and the Dominican Republic). "Although it is not a direct threat to human health, its deadly nature in swine could result in pork product shortages, disruptions to trade, and economic impacts," according to the USDA. Other safety concerns include the West Nile virus, anthrax, E. coli bacteria in livestock and meat products, and residual pesticides in plant products. Efforts are also being made to protect this industry from agri-terrorism. The agriculture industry has also grown concerned about rising levels of microplastic concentrations as a result of their introduction to the soil in fertilizers; introduction to agricultural soils from plastic residues on plastic mulch films, crop covers, crop housing, polymer-coated agrochemicals; and other sources; and introduction from direct sources including biosolids, wastewater irrigation and equipment, wear of farm machinery, and microplastic pollution from industrial emissions. "In agricultural soils, microplastics have been shown to negatively impact crop quality, yield, and the physical, chemical and biological properties of soil," according to "Agricultural Fertilisers Contribute Substantially to Microplastic Concentrations in UK Soils," which was published in Communications Earth & Environment.

Genetic engineering in both plant and animal agriculture is being hotly debated in the agricultural and political communities, as well as among consumers. Some proponents of genetic engineering believe that engineering crops and livestock to be more resistant to disease, insects, and other problems and to have longer shelf lives will greatly benefit farmers. However, the effects of genetic engineering on the environment and on humans, as well as the long-term effects on the agricultural products themselves, have not yet been determined. Research, experimentation, and debate are likely to continue for several decades.

Some analysts are predicting that farmers of the future may earn more income by dealing in renewable energy, particularly selling wind power. There are also possibilities for ethanol, biodiesel, and the generation of electricity from the methane produced by livestock feeding operations.

More diverse career opportunities are available for those with advanced degrees in agriculture-related fields. Agricultural scientists, agribusiness professionals, and equipment technicians will see their jobs expand to involve high-tech methods of conservation, planting, tilling, and treating farm crops.

Farm managers and operators will need extensive understanding of new farming methods and equipment as well as computer-aided operations and the use of artificial intelligence (AI). In the past, fields were treated as if every acre had the same needs; scientists and farmers have discovered that the soil and plants are better treated as individually as possible. Precision farming through computers, satellites, sensors, and the use of AI treats each acre of soil and each plant for its own specific needs. With computers in tractors, farmers are able to determine exactly how much fertilizer, herbicide, etc., is needed by the soil and plants. Farmers can then treat the soil and plants with even more effective fertilizers and pesticides, and their genetically engineered crops will be more resistant to drought and disease.