Transportation

The outlook for the transportation industry generally varies depending on the sector and the job. Some areas are usually expected to have more employment growth than others. As of October 2024, the U.S. domestic airlines industry was valued at $185.3 billion, reflecting compound annual growth of 0.3 percent since 2019, and 1.1 percent in 2024, according to IBISWorld. The research group forecast continued expansion for the industry between 2025 and 2030. As of late 2024, there were about 400 businesses employing 552,000 people in the U.S. airlines industry.

Overall, faster-than-average job growth is expected for air transportation workers through 2033, according to the U.S. Department of Labor (DOL). Commercial pilots will experience a 6 percent increase in employment, while aircraft pilots, copilots, and flight engineers will see employment rise by 5 percent. Opportunities for flight attendants will increase 10 percent during the same timeframe, much faster than the average. Meanwhile, employment for air traffic controllers will increase at an average pace of 3 percent through 2033. In the future, the NextGen satellite-based system is expected to increase air traffic control capabilities and reduce the need for more air traffic controllers.

In October 2024, IBISWorld reported that revenues in the U.S. rail transportation industry totaled $99.6 billion. This reflected compound annual growth of 1.3 percent over the previous five years. Following the difficulties caused by the pandemic earlier in the decade, the industry had experienced volatile conditions. These were attributed to a number of factors, including a decline in consumer spending following the Federal Reserve’s fiscal tightening measures, which also negatively impacted industrial output, trade values, and ultimately freight volume. Nevertheless, the industry benefited from an uptick in demand for exports and higher prices for liquefied natural gas and coal. IBISWorld anticipated that the industry would continue to grow between 2025 and 2030.

The DOL predicts slower than average growth for railroad workers through 2033. Most job opportunities will arise from workers who retire from the field. In recent years, many railroad companies have been focused on improving productivity by increasing freight capacity rather than adding more workers. Double-stacking trains or running longer trains are examples of the tactics railroads are using to increase capacity. Intermodal freight may increase in the next few years, however, which could increase the demand for railroad workers. Goods that are shipped through several types of transportation modes are known as intermodal freight.

Water transportation workers are expected to have average growth through 2033, according to the DOL, with employment increasing at a 3 percent pace. As with railroad workers, most openings will be attributable to retirements and workers who move to other occupations. The fluctuations in demand for bulk commodities, such as iron ore, grains, and petroleum products, have a big effect on waterborne jobs. High demand for these commodities will mean increased employment for water transportation workers, while low demand means fewer workers will be needed. The DOL also points out that larger vessels that are able to carry more cargo require fewer workers. Strong competition from other transportation options, like railways, trucks, and pipelines, may limit job growth in domestic waterway freight. Jobs with deep-sea shipping companies are expected to stay stable due to federal laws and subsidies that ensure the continuance of merchant ship fleets with U.S. flags. According to the Cruise Lines International Association’s Global Economic Impact Study, published in November 2024, 1.6 million incremental jobs were created by the cruise industry during 2023. This reflected an increase of 37 percent from 2019.

The U.S. trucking industry was growing during the early-to-mid-2020s. The American Trucking Associations estimated that the industry supported approximately 8.5 million jobs in 2023, excluding self-employed individuals. The total included 3.55 million truck drivers, whose numbers had increased 0.3 percent from the previous year. Truck-driver shortages have been an ongoing issue, due mainly to retiring personnel, growth in the trucking industry, and the fact that many applicants are unqualified.

The Department of Labor predicts average employment growth of 5 percent for heavy and tractor-trailer truck drivers through 2033. As more businesses and households increase spending on goods, more truck drivers will be needed to transport those goods. Truck drivers will continue to be needed to transport materials for the oil and gas industries. Truck drivers with proper training and clean driving records will have the best job prospects.

Bus drivers are expected to have slower-than-average employment growth in the coming years, according to the DOL. Transit and intercity bus drivers will have good job opportunities as the population in large metropolitan areas continues to grow. Bus drivers for special-needs clients will also be needed, particularly for the aging population.