Retail

Sales industry trends in the coming years will include consolidation into larger firms and the continued spread of new technology, both of which should slow growth in some occupations; for example, as drug and grocery stores convert to self-service operations, they will need fewer sales clerks. Heightened competition and pressure to lower operating costs will continue to force mergers. The result will be reduced demand for some workers. Because of the growth of the aging population, wholesale trade firms that specialize in pharmaceuticals and medical devices will experience faster than average employment growth. More jobs should also be available in customer services as consolidation and competition encourage expansion of these services. There also will be employment opportunities for workers in financial, logistical, technical, and advertising positions.

The pandemic caused a significant shift in consumer behavior, with an increase in online sales due to business lockdowns in 2020 and early 2021. Many people made online purchases for items they would otherwise normally buy during in-store visits, such as medicines, health items, cleaning materials, groceries, and more. Many retail businesses re-strategized their retailing methods in order to keep consumers and employees safe, and to keep generating revenue. Since the pandemic, the economy has strengthened and consumer spending in the retail sector has increased. Online shopping in particular is expected to continue growing through 2033, reducing demand for retail salespeople, according to the Department of Labor. On a positive note, many brick-and-mortar retailers are expected to focus more on customer service, in order to compete with online sellers. The DOL points out that "cost pressures may additionally lead retailers to hire workers who can perform a broad range of tasks, such as helping customers find items, operating a cash register, and restocking shelves."

The research group IBISWorld reported that the U.S. retail industry has been resilient the past few years, showing compound annual growth of 3.2 percent from 2019 through 2024, with 3.5 percent growth in 2024 alone. U.S. retail industry revenue had reached $7.6 trillion by year-end 2024. The U.S. retail trade industry is projected to grow through 2030, as the national employment rate and the Consumer Confidence Index rise. Trends that are expected to continue in retail include businesses investing in automation and diversifying their products and services.

Electronic commerce and other types of new technology are expected to continue affecting employment. Statista.com reported that retail e-commerce sales worldwide were $3.53 trillion in 2019, and projected this revenue to reach $4.32 trillion in 2025. More than 8 percent annual growth is projected from 2025 through 2029, with global e-commerce sales reaching $5.89 trillion by 2029. By 2029, the number of e-commerce users is expected to be 3.6 billion. The growth of e-commerce and rising productivity due to improved computer technology is expected to cause some decline in administrative support and marketing and sales positions. Much of the record-keeping, ordering, and processing in retail sales will be automated, as will inventory management and shipping. Many retailers are also starting to use artificial intelligence technology for customer service tasks and various business operations. E-commerce will lessen the need for bookkeeping, accounting, and auditing clerks. However, more computer specialists will be needed, such as Webmasters, Internet sales managers, and technical support workers, to develop e-commerce and electronic data exchange systems. E-commerce will also affect sales workers. Sales workers’ jobs will become more technology-dependent as they use computers to track inventory, solicit new business, and provide customer service.

The retail field is extremely competitive, and many start-ups fail each year. The most common reason for failure is poor management. Thus people with some managerial experience or training will likely have the best chance at running a successful business.

Employment of first-line supervisors of retail sales workers, which includes retail managers, is expected to decline by 1 percent through 2033. Although retailers have reduced their management staff to cut costs and make operations more efficient, there will continue to be opportunities in retailing. Internet stores and e-commerce ventures will present new opportunities for retail managers, for example. However, competition for all jobs will continue to increase, and computerized systems for inventory control may reduce the need for some managers. Applicants with the best educational backgrounds and work experience will have the best chances of finding jobs.

More than 4 million people are employed as sales workers in retail stores of all types and sizes. The employment of sales personnel is expected to show little or no change through 2033, according to the U.S. Department of Labor. Demand for in-store retail sales workers is due to increased competition from online sales. There will be some job opportunities, however, because turnover among sales workers is much higher than average. Many of the expected employment opportunities will stem from the need to replace workers. Other positions will result from existing stores’ staffing for longer business hours or reducing the length of the average employee workweek.